Point Spread Factors

by Betrics Co. Author Mike Noblin

Point Spreads and Totals and Props, OH MY 😊! If you are new to the sports betting world, you may wonder what exactly a point spread or a total is. In this article, we will explain the definition of each of these and how the bookmaker formulates these numbers.

Q: So, what exactly is a point spread anyway?

A: A point spread is the number of points that the stronger team (the favorite) is expected to win by the end of the game. For example, let’s say that the Kansas City Chiefs are playing a home game against the Green Bay Packers. The point spread on this game may open at Kansas City (-4).

This means is that if you wager on the Chiefs, they must win by more than the 4-point spread for you to cash your ticket. If the Chiefs win by only 3 points, you lose your wager of Kansas City (-4). Likewise, all the gamblers that bet on Green Bay (+4) would win their respective bets.

Factors that go into Making the Point Spread

Here are some of the key factors that all bookmakers consider when making the point spread on games.

Power Ratings

Good oddsmakers keep their own set of power ratings on each team. Let’s use college football as an example. The bookmakers may rate the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide at an even 100. But, on the other hand, they may give Rutgers a 70 on their power rating scale. In theory, this would mean that Alabama would be favored by 30 points on a neutral field.

Home Field Advantage

Linemakers usually give the home team some advantage when formulating point spreads. As a result, the standard edge is usually 3 points for the home field. (Side note: The standard home-field edge was adjusted during the Covid19 pandemic since fans either were not allowed or were severely reduced.)

Injuries

Unfortunately, injuries are a part of sports, and they affect the point spread. If the injury is to a key player (such as a starting Quarterback or star Point Guard), the point spread is adjusted more dramatically.