Reading Line Movement

by Betrics Co. Author Mike Noblin

Definition of Line

Line is the term used to describe the odds of a sporting event.

Have you ever logged into your sports betting account on a Sunday evening during football season? Did all the new point spreads for the next week’s games start lighting up like a Christmas tree with all kinds of movement? A team that was a (-2.5) point favorite may move to a (-4) point favorite in a matter of minutes. Why does that happen?

In this article, we will dive into what causes line movement in sports betting. We will also discuss some key tips that will help you better read the lines and predict which way they will move.

Top Reasons for Line Movement

Here are some of the main reasons why sportsbook operators choose to move their lines.

Sharp Bettors

All sportsbooks keep detailed profiles of all their respective players. The books know who their “sharp” players are and who their “square” players are. Sharps are also known as smart gamblers, wise-guys, or professional gambling syndicates. The term “square” refers to your average Joe Public gambler that usually bets heavy favorites and always on his favorite sports teams. Obviously, books respect sharp money much more than square money. A $500 wager from a sharp bettor may cause the bookmaker to move his line, while a $5000 bet from a square bettor may not cause any line movement.

Injuries

Have you ever seen how much the line moves on a Lakers game if it is announced that Lebron James or Anthony Davis will be out? Injuries to key players always result in some line movement.

Weather

A drastic change in weather reports will usually affect the game's total points (or Over/Under). For example, have you noticed how much a Cubs game total will go up at Wrigley Field when they announce that the wind is “blowing out” that day?

Total Amount of Money

If a bookmaker has mainly one-sided action on a game, they will normally move the line to try to entice some bets on the other side. This helps to “balance” their booking action and protect their bottom line from too much risk.

Moving on “Air”

Many online sportsbooks move their lines simply because other offshore books move their point spreads. This is called moving on “air” instead of moving on real money. Unfortunately, there are a lot of “copycats” in this business.

Keys to Predicting Line Moves

Here are a few keys points to consider when attempting to predict line movement. It usually takes years of experience to know what way a line is going to move.

Key #1: Know When to Bet

Knowing when to bet is just as valuable as what team to wager on. If you like the favorite, consider betting it early in the week. However, if you like the underdog, it may pay to wait until almost game time to make your wager!

Most of the betting public believes that the favorite is the better team and will wager on them accordingly. This often drives the line up on the favorite and may create further value on the underdog.

Key #2: Respect the Smart Money

We are not saying never go against the grain of the sharp syndicates. However, if a line moves by more than a full point (from -1 to -3.5, for example), you must pause and consider why the line moved that much. Most of the time, this indicates that the bookmakers hung a bad opening point spread and are desperate to get action on the other side.

Key #3: Never Forget the Power of El Paso

No, we are not talking about the city in Texas here (LOL). El Paso is betting slang that means “pass” (or do not bet) on the game. If too much line movement on a game freaks you out, remember that you do not have to bet the game. Most bettors do not realize that one of their greatest advantages over the bookmaker is the ability to be selective!