Betting on the NCAA Tournament​

Content curated from and authored by Clear Data Sports

By the time March rolls around, you’ll be an old pro at betting basketball. But don’t confuse doing well on games in February as a sign you’ll do well on games during the NCAA Tournament in March. It is a different animal altogether, and it’s not just because more than $14 billion will be wagered on the three-week event.

From your office pool to betting on the Final Four to just making random picks from round to round, successful Tournament wagering only comes if you have an edge.

Seeds Matter

You will have probably seen most of the top seeds in each bracket. But it’s a safe bet that Maryland-Baltimore County has never been on your television. So use the committee’s own seeding as a guide to just how good some of these teams are.

Now, in the case of UMBC, that would have backfired in 2018, when it became the very first 16 seed to knock off a No. 1. But those kinds of upsets are very rare.

Research seed history. A 12 generally wins in the first round. Even a couple might win. But almost all of them lose in the second round. And as much as we love upsets, in reality, top seeds advance to the Final Four 40 percent of the time. So know the history, and then look for the edge.

Early Values Can Be Found

The sooner you can bet on a spread that feels soft, the better. The closer each game gets to tipoff, the greater the consolidation of bets. So point spreads tend to become even.

But when lines are first set and they involve so many teams that exist as great unknowns, value can be found. If you find such value, don’t wait. Jump on it early before the public has a chance to do its research.

Location

The NCAA makes a point of only playing teams on neutral courts. But neutral is a very subjective definition. In 1988, Kansas won the national championship playing just 30 miles from its campus. So don’t use the NCAA’s definition of neutral when doing your own research.

The reality is that some teams travel far, others play close to home, and in your deliberations, that should be considered.

Also, think about the arena in which the game is played. Some teams play most of their games in small gyms, and then suddenly are playing in massive arenas in the Tournament.

Depth perceptions can be off in these cases, and field-goal percentages can drop. It all matters, and it all should be considered.

Streaking Teams

It makes good sense to play the streaks at the beginning of the Tournament. Teams that play their way in by winning their conference tournament are hot and should be treated as such.

Auburn from last year is the perfect example of this. The Tigers won four straight before the SEC tournament, won another four straight there, and then won four straight in the NCAA Tournament.

Playing the hot hand is a good strategy early, but is less important by the Final Four when everyone is hot.