Futures Bets​

Content curated from and authored by Clear Data Sports

In the aptly named futures bet, you are placing money down an event far into the future. This includes the Super Bowl winner, the winner of a division, the World Cup, major trophies in golf, or season win totals for an individual team.

Typically these bets are placed before the season begins, but that’s not a requirement. All throughout the NFL season, you can bet on the eventual Super Bowl winner, and the odds you play will be constantly updated.

The Odds and Probabilities

Let’s say a team is paying 20/1 as an eventual Super Bowl champion. That would mean the implied probability that they will win the Super Bowl is five percent. But that includes the juice the sportsbook is taking, so the actual probability is lower than five percent.

We know this for two reasons. One, the sportsbook always gets its cut. And two, just do the math. Figure up the percentages of all teams in a futures bet, be it the Super Bowl, NBA championship, or World Series, and you’ll see that the total is well over 100 percent.

On a normal bet, we know that the number is around 110 percent, accounting for the 10 percent juice the book takes. For futures bets, however, that total might be as high as 135 percent, so that the book can cover itself in case a long shot comes in, like the St. Louis Blues just did at +2500. One fan turned a $400 bet into $100,000.

So just know that the odds you’re playing do not reflect the actual probability of you hitting your bet.

Futures Betting Strategies

So if you know that the reward to probability ratio does not warrant the financial risk a futures bet, why play them? Well, most of the sharps don’t. It’s not a good way to make consistently profitable bets.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t play them and finds ways to mitigate your risk.

For example, last year, I had the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at 30/1. By the time they made it to the AFC Championship Game, to mitigate my risk and ensure that I won at least something, I could have put money down each of the three remaining teams - the Patriots, Rams, and Saints. If the Chiefs were to win, I’d still get a big profit. But if someone else won, I’d at a minimum break even.

This is what is known as hedging your bets. Placing money down on another outcome to help increase the odds that you’ll win at least something is quite common, and a way to make futures bets less of a gamble.

You can bet on a number of underdogs at the beginning of the season, and as the year progresses, you can find the most likely favorites to knock off the one underdog that emerges and make that your hedge. It can be fun, challenging, and still come with a big payoff.

Of course, the major downside with futures bets is that your money is tied up for months at a time with potential payoffs well down the road.