Fading the Public​

Content curated from and authored by Clear Data Sports

Let’s be honest. They aren’t opening new sportsbooks across the country because they are giving money away.

Sportsbooks and bookmaking are big money makers, which means that the betting public at large is a big money loser. The majority of people who place sports wagers do not win.

And it is with that in mind that the sports betting strategy known as fading the public -- or betting against the public -- came to be. If someone gave you a betting tip, and then you found out they only won 40 percent of the time, you’d bet the opposite.

This is that same principle applied here. The only difference is that you need to search for the tip.

Understanding What The Public Bets

Sportsbooks study the betting trends of the public, and so should you. They set their point spreads and odds according to how the public bets, which overwhelmingly places its money on favorites and overs.

This tendency is largely attributed to the psychology of human beings. We like to bet on winners, so we lean toward the favorites.

We also like to root for offense, instead of rooting for defense, so overs tend to get the majority of point total wagers.

Because of this, bookmakers tend to shade point spreads in the direction of favorites. Remember, when they set a spread, they aren’t making a prediction of the score. They are only concerned with making a profit and covering themselves against a potentially big loss.

Spotting Line Movement

Do a little digging, and it’s fairly easy to find websites that will tell where the tickets are falling on a given matchup. But in the event you can’t see in such obvious ways which direction the public is betting, always watch the point spread.

When the majority of money goes in one direction, sportsbooks respond by moving the line to stimulate more bets on the other side.

Once you figure out how to spot the line shifts, then you can gauge with a decent amount of accuracy where the public is placing its money.

If the Seahawks open at -4.5, but by kickoff, the line is up to -6.5, you know that most of the money is picking the Seahawks to cover.

Following The Sharps

If sports betting was as easy as just picking against the public, everyone would be a winner, and there would be no public money to fade. There is obviously more to it, and that’s where understanding how the sharps are betting is also beneficial.

If you see that the majority of betting slips are going to the Seahawks to cover the above bet, but the line shifts against them, then it’s probably because the professional bettors are putting their money down on Seattle’s opponent.

In that case, the book will also respond, and often faster than with the public. Sportsbooks don’t mind being opposite the public (or squares). They are, however, far more hesitant to go against the professionals (or sharps).

But don’t just automatically follow the sharps and go against the public. It’s about finding the best value. If the line has moved and it’s no longer a great bet, look for something else.